The global insurance industry is poised for moderate growth over the next two years, according to the latest Sigma study released by the Swiss Re Institute. Titled “Growth in the Shadow of (Geo)Politics – Global Economic and Insurance Market Outlook 2025–26”, the report projects an annual increase of 2.6% in global insurance premiums during 2025 and 2026, driven largely by gains in the life insurance segment.
Life Insurance Leads Growth
Life insurance is forecasted to grow by 3% annually, spurred by several global economic and demographic trends. Key drivers include rising real wages, sustained high-interest rates in major markets, an ageing global population, and a burgeoning middle class in emerging economies. These factors are expected to elevate the demand for life insurance products, especially in regions where financial literacy and disposable incomes are on the rise.
Slower Growth in Non-Life Segment
The non-life insurance sector, which has experienced robust growth over the past five years with an average annual increase of 3.1%, is projected to slow to 2.3% annual growth in 2025 and 2026. This deceleration reflects the impact of macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, which continue to weigh on the global economy.
Despite this slowdown, the Swiss Re Institute anticipates that non-life insurers will benefit from higher investment income, driven by persistently elevated interest rates in key financial markets. This improved investment yield is expected to offset some of the challenges in premium growth.
Challenges and Opportunities
The report highlights the influence of geopolitical tensions and economic shifts on the insurance industry’s trajectory. However, it also underscores opportunities in emerging markets, where a growing middle class and increasing awareness of insurance as a financial tool could spur demand across both life and non-life segments.
Outlook
Swiss Re Institute’s study paints a nuanced picture of the global insurance market through 2026. While the industry faces headwinds in the form of slower growth in non-life premiums, the life insurance segment is set to drive overall expansion. Elevated interest rates and changing demographics are likely to shape investment strategies and product offerings in the years ahead.
“The insurance industry continues to adapt to a complex global environment, balancing challenges with opportunities in emerging markets and shifting economic trends,” the report concludes.
The findings signal a period of resilience and transformation for the sector, as insurers navigate evolving market dynamics and capitalize on growth opportunities in both developed and developing economies.
